基于模糊故障树方法的钻井平台井喷概率计算

Probability Calculation of Blowout of Drilling Platform Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree Method

基于模糊理论,提出了一种定量风险评估方法——模糊故障树方法。查阅历史数据库或者借助专家判断,给出故障树模型中各基本事件发生可能性的模糊数表示。考虑到不同专家意见之间可能存在的差异,给出了处理专家意见的运算法则及确定专家权重的理论方法。以半潜式钻井平台发生井喷为顶事件,构建了故障树模型,依据给出的模糊故障树理论模型,计算得到半潜式平台在钻进或固井过程中发生井喷的概率。

Based on fuzzy theory, a quantitative risk assessment method called fuzzy fault tree analysis is presented. By referring to risk database or by dint of expert judgements, this paper presents occurrence possibility of each basic event in the fault tree model which is expressed in the form of fuzzy numbers. Since each expert may have a different opinion, this paper developes an algorithm to aggregate expert opinion and a method to determine the importance weight of expert opinion. This paper constructs fault tree model on blowout of semi-submersible drilling platform. According to fuzzy fault tree analysis method, the probability of blowout is calculated during drilling or cementing on a semi-submersible drilling platform.