巨灾风险可保性研究

Insurability of Catastrophe Risk

以近年来巨灾保险相对萎缩的现实为背景,通过界定风险可保性来分析巨灾风险的可保性内涵以及影响巨灾风险可保性的因素。在此基础上,基于破产理论找出了巨灾风险的可保性边界,并给出了拓展巨灾风险可保性边界的政策建议。研究认为:巨灾风险的模糊性、低频高损失、难以聚合以及保险人的偿付能力、管理能力和经营目标等因素都可能会影响巨灾风险的可保性。具体而言,巨灾风险的可保性边界主要由保险人的初始资本金和保费附加共同决定,初始资本金越大、保费附加越高,巨灾风险的可保性边界就越宽,保险人的承保范围就越大。因此,通过提高保险人对巨灾风险认识、提高保险人的财务实力、对巨灾保险进行保费补贴、分保、共保以及通过资本市场和公共部门对巨灾风险进行融资均有助于扩大巨灾风险的可保性。

Based on the facts of the decrease of catastrophe insurance in recent years,we discussed the connotation of catastrophe risk insurability and affecting factors through defining the insurability of risks.Furthermore,we defined the boundary of catastrophe insurability on the basis of the ruin theory and offered some policy suggestions on how to expand the boundary.Factors such as ambiguity,low probability and large loss,and difficulty to pool the risk of catastrophes,and insurer's constraints of solvency,management skills and business targets could all have a negative influence on the insurance of catastrophe risk.Specifically speaking,the insurability boundary of catastrophe was determined by the initial capital and premium loading of the insurer.The higher the initial capital and the larger the premium loading,the wider the boundary would be.Therefore,to expand the boundary of the insurability for catastrophe risk,we should enhance the awareness for catastrophe,strengthen the insurer's financial capacity,offer premium subsidy on catastrophe insurance,utilize reinsurance and co-insurance operations,as well as raise fund through the capital market public institutions.All these should help to expand the insurability of catastrophes.