中国长期护理保障制度的财政负担——基于德、日社会保险模式的测算

Fiscal Burden of Long Term Care Social Insurance System in China——Measurement Based on Social Insurance Systems of Germany and Japan

应用我国的实际数据,在考虑城乡"二元"经济特点的基础上,考察长期护理纳入我国社会保险制度的适用性,采用微观仿真的方法,分别参照德国和日本的长期护理社会保险融资模式,模拟测算出1995年～2010年的长期护理社保缴费率水平处于0.07%～0.26%,在16年间增长2.71倍,在此基础上比较分析由于缴费人群和护理补贴财政负担待遇上的差异对于缴费率的影响,为我国今后构建长期护理保障融资制度提供决策参考。

This paper analyzed the applicability to include long term care into our social insurance system, taking into consideration the urban-rural dualistic economic structure characteristics. By simulating the long term care so- cial insurance financing schemes of Germany and Japan, we worked out that the long term care social insurance con- tributions were between 0. 07% - 0. 26% during the period of 1995 to 2010, and it increased 2.71 times in 16 years. On the basis of the above research, we analyzed the impacts of the differences of participants, care subsidies and financial burden on contribution ratio, hoping that it will serve as useful references for China to establish long term care insurance financing system in the future.