论货币一体化中的两种发展趋势

On the Two Trends in the Process of Global Currency Integration

在目前国际货币一体化的过程中,存在着两种发展趋势,一为本币美元化,二为建立单一的货币区。这两种趋势出现的现实原因是:在全球经济一体化和金融自由化的背景下,许多小国弱国的货币无力与大国强国的货币抗衡;其理论原因则在于,当面临“独立的货币政策、稳定的本币汇率和充分的资本自由流动”三难选择时,一国政府无法兼顾。但实行本币美元化是要以放弃本国货币主权为代价的,建立单一货币区也要以多方面的经济趋同为前提,因此,这两种进程都将充满着艰辛和曲折。

There are two trends in the process of global currency integration: one is the dollarization of currency; the other is the setting-up of a single currency zone. The practical motivations of the trends are: in the process of the economic globalization and the liberalization of finance, the currencies of small countries are no match for big countries; the academic explanation for that is that state authorities cannot control the situation when facing a trilemma, i.e. an independent monetary police, a steady exchange rate and the free flow of international capital . The dollarization of currency is at the cost of the currency sovereignty of a country, and the setting-up of a single currency zone is based on the homology of economies. So there certainly exist obstacles to both trends.