中国的能耗结构、能源贸易与碳减排任务

Energy consumption Structure, Energy Trade and Carbon Emission Reduction Task of China

碳减排既是中国转变发展方式的内涵之一,也是经济增长的约束性指标之一,本文从中国碳排放分解模型入手,找寻出持续抑制中国碳排放增长的关键因素之一,即能耗结构。在分析了能源净进口与能耗结构变动的显著线性关系后,结合当前中国能源进口的世界格局及存在的潜在风险,得出中俄能源管道贸易在中国碳减排任务中可能扮演的重要角色,尤其是中俄天然气项目在进一步改善中国三种一次能源消费结构中的潜在助推作用。

Carbon emission reduction is not only one of the connotations of the changing patterns of development in China, but also one of the binding tar- gets of economic growth. In addition, Chinese government proposed the goal of declining carbon intensity till 2020. Based on the analysis of decomposition mod- el for the carbon emissions, this article figures out one of the key factors that continue to inhibit the growth of carbon emissions in China, which is energy con- sumption structure. After analysis of the significant linear relationship between net energy imports and the changes of energy consumption structure, this article finds out the important role that the Sino-Russian energy pipelines trade may play in China carbon emission reduction task and the potentially boosting role that the Sino-Russian natural gas project plays in further improving the three kinds of Chinese primary energy consumption structure, in line with the current world pattern of energy imports and the presence of potential risk in China.