替代出口还是促进出口——我国对外直接投资对出口的影响研究

Substitute Exports or Promote Exports? ——Study on the Influence China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Exports

自2002年以来,我国对外直接投资发展迅猛,迅速增长的对外直接投资会促进我国对东道国的出口还是会用海外生产来替代我国对该国的出口呢?本文结合我国对外直接投资与出口贸易的现实情况,通过构建一个影响出口的引力模型,并利用我国2004-2010年35个国家的面板数据进行了混合回归模型分析。研究结果表明,我国对外直接投资对出口贸易存在明显的促进作用,且无论是发达国家还是发展中国家,这种促进效应都存在。因此,对于我国目前而言,无论是对发达国家的逆向上行投资,还是对发展中国家的顺向下行投资,都是具有贸易创造效应的海外投资。

China＇s outward foreign direct investment gets rapid development since 2002. Does the increasing outward foreign direct investment increase the China＇s exports or replace the exports？ Using the panel data from 2004 to 2010 of 35 countries, this paper studies the relationship between China＇s exports and outward foreign direct investment. The study is based on a gravity model. The re- sult shows that the outward foreign direct investment increases the exports. This relation exists either in the upstream developed countries or downstream develop- ing countries. So no matter the different motivations that China＇s MNCs may have when investing in developed countries or developing countries, they are both trade created investments.