货币国际化过程中的金融市场发展因素分析

Analysis of Financial Market Development Factors in the Process of Currency Internationalization

货币锚的决定因素是一国经济实力和地缘政治优势的变化。随着美国、欧盟、日本、英国货币国际化的推进,美元、欧元、日元和英镑在新兴市场国家的"货币锚"地位得到进一步巩固,成为新兴市场国家投资和储备的主要货币。以新兴市场国家"货币锚"的调整为主线,分析1999—2011年美元、英镑、欧元和日元国际化推进过程中金融市场发展因素的影响,结果表明:西方国家的货币国际化走过的是一条金融深化的道路,股票市场交易额占GDP的比重对货币的国际化起到了显著的正向促进作用,而股票周转率、资本市场中上市公司市值占GDP比重以及国内银行信贷占GDP比重的提高则不利于货币国际化的深入推进。在人民币国际化推进中,中国需要优先稳固发展国内的实体经济;在金融市场发展方面,要提升国内金融市场的国际化程度,保证股票市场的稳健发展,同时应警惕国内信贷资金的急剧增加。

The determinant factor of currency anchor depends on the change of economic capacity and local political advantage of a country. With the promotion of currency internationalization of the United States, EU, Japan and the UK, US dollars, Euro, Yen and pound sterling are further consolidating their ＂ currency anchor＂ position in emerging market countries and become the main currencies for emerging market countries to invest and reserve. Based on the adjustment of the ＂currency anchor＂ in emerging market countries, this paper studies the financial market factors in the process of currency internationalization of these currencies during 1999--2011. The results show that currency internationalization of western countries experiences a financial deepening process, the proportion of stock exchange amount to GDP has positive boosting effect on currency internationalization, however, the increase of stock turnover rate, the rate of the value of listed companies to GDP and the rate of domestic bank credit to GDP is not conducive to the promotion of currency internationalization. In the process of the promotion of RMB internationalization, China needs to give priority to stably developing domestic tangible economy, to raise internationalization degree of domestic financial market in the perspective of financial market development, to ensure stable development of stock market and meanwhile to be vigilant to rapidly increase domestic credit capital. Key words： currency internationalization ; currency anchor; international currency ; RMB internationalization ; financial market internationalization; financial deepening; capital market development degree; capital market liquidity; bank system development degree