我国利率调整对房价影响的理论与实证研究

Theoretical and Empirical Research on the Impact of Interest Rate Adjustment on the Real Estate Price in China

利率变动对房价具有负向的影响已成为国际学术界的主流观点,但国内一些学者在研究我国利率变动对房价影响的过程中,由于对土地供给和利率这两个重要的非市场化因素研究不足,得出的实证检验结果有很大的差异。文章将土地价格这一非市场化因素引入计量经济学模型进行实证检验,结果发现,利率的提高将有效地刺激地方政府通过紧缩地根来稳定乃至推高地价,从而导致国家利率上调政策对房价的抑制作用十分有限。

It is agreed in the international academia that the fluctuation in interest rate has negative impact on housing prices. However, empirical research findings in China may prove otherwise due to inadequate studies on the two key non-market factors involved, i.e. land supply and interest rate. Analyzing land prices by using econometric models, this paper holds that rising interest rate has in fact effectively stimulated local governments to stabilize or even raise land prices by way of cutting land supply, resulting in the limited effect of the measures taken by the central government to harness housing prices through raising interest rate.