美军撤离后的美伊关系发展

How will U.S.-Iraqi Relations Develop after the Withdrawal of the U.S.Forces

2011年12月美军从伊拉克撤离后,美国对伊的掌控有所松动。伊拉克国内的民族、教派矛盾迅速浮现和激化。伊朗乘机加大对伊拉克的渗透,沙特也积极支持伊国内逊尼派势力对抗伊朗。这在一定程度上影响到美国深化与伊拉克的关系。但鉴于美国在中东地区仍驻有相当规模的威慑力量和美伊之间签署了《战略框架协议》,美国对伊拉克局势的主导权并未动摇,两国伙伴关系已显雏形。未来制约美伊关系深入发展的最大障碍在于伊能否实现民族教派和解,推动国家重建发展进程。从目前趋势看,伊拉克国内形势在相当长时间内难有根本性好转。同时,不排除美利用伊拉克干预叙利亚危机和遏制伊朗的可能。从长远看,美伊的战略伙伴关系效益将日趋显现,值得进一步观察和研究。

Since the United States began to withdraw its military forces from Iraq in December 2011,its control of Iraq has seen a little bit loose somewhat.As a result,ethnic,religious and sectarian contradictions are piling up quickly and get worsened inside Iraq.Meanwhile,Iran makes use of the situation to increase its effort in infiltrating into Iraq,and Saudi Arabia looses no time to actually support the Sunni Muslims in Iraq in a bid to contain Iran.All these have,in some way,damaged the deepening of relations between the U. S.and Iraq.However,as the U.S.still remains quite a large number of deterrent forces in the Middle East,and a strategic framework agreement was signed between the two sides,their partnership relations have already come into shape,and the U.S.dominant position to the Iraqi situation was not changed. In the future,the biggest obstacle in the way of developing of their relations lies in whether or not a reconciliation between and among various ethnic,religious and sectarian groups can be achieved,so that a national reconstruction process will be stimulated in Iraq.In view of current political trend,domestic situation in Iraq can hardly see to take a turn for the better in a rather long period of time.At the same time,the possibility that the U.S.using Iraq to intervene in Syrian crisis and to contain Iran could not be ruled out.From a long -term perspective,benefits that accrue from setting up strategic partnership relations between the U.S.and Iraq will become noticeable with each passing day,which indeed deserves us to give it further observation and study.