深化利率市场化对中国银行业经营的影响研究——基于古诺动态博弈模型的研究

On Impacts of the Deepening of Interest Rate Liberalization on the China Banking Operations——Based on Dynamics Cournot Game Model

本文选取2010年底我国存贷款总额排名前25位的商业银行的存款、贷款以及收入、费用等截面数据作为分析对象,根据我国银行业的市场结构特征,设定单家银行机构的利润函数,并在古诺动态博弈模型的框架下,对存款利率管制放松后的银行业利润、资产等变化情形进行模拟分析。研究表明:存款利率管制放开后,存、贷款利率共同上升,但存贷利差短期内并未收缩;以国有银行为代表的大型银行由于存在规模不经济性,规模扩张的动力较弱,存、贷款规模份额和利润均有所下降,股份制银行和城市商业银行在金融中介中的地位和竞争力有所提升。

The thesis makes a simulation analysis on the changes of profits and assets of the banking industry with the deposit rate loosened.Taking reference from Dynamics Cournot Game Model,it sets a single-bank/institutions profit function based on the market pattern of China's banking industry and takes the cross-section data of China's top 25 commercial banks(by the end of 2010) as its subject,ranging from deposits,loans to earnings and costs.The results show that when the deposit rate cap is removed,both lending and deposit rates will rise while deposit and loan interest spreads will not necessarily shrink in the short run.The larger banks,mostly the state-owned banks,have less impulse to expand their scales because of their diseconomies of scale.As a result,their shares of deposits,loans and profits will decline yet joint-stock banks and city commercial banks will play more important roles in financial intermediation.