人民币汇率波动对广西FDI影响的实证研究

Research on the Exchange Rate of RMB Fluctuation on the FDI of Guangxi

进入2012年以来,随着中国国内物价指数持续攀高,欧债危机向更深更广范围蔓延,美元逐步进入贬值周期,人民币在这样的环境下将"不可避免"地有小幅度的加息升值。诸多迹象表明,人民币汇率调整已经进入倒计时。由于汇率与FDI之间存在互相影响的关系,因此,我们在分析人民币汇率波动时都必须考虑到这种均衡内生关系。本文运用了协整、误差修正模型等计量方法对人民币汇率波动对广西FDI的长短期影响进行了实证分析后发现,人民币的实际汇率和名义汇率的波动在长期和短期对广西FDI的影响程度是有差异的。

With China＇ s domestic price index continued up and the debt crisis spread to a deeper degree and to a wider extent into 2012, the dollar has gradually entered the revaluation cycle, the RMB in such an environment would inevitable have a small range of raising interest rates. Many signs have indicated that the RMB exchange rate is count- ing down to its adjustment. Due to the correlations between the exchange rate and FDI in Guangxi, we have to consider the equilibrium relationship between them. This paper uses the co-integration, error correction model to analyze the RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the Guangxi FDI in long-term and short-term effect .The research finds that the ef- fect of RMB real exchange rate and nominal exchange rate fluctuation on Guangxi FDI is discrepant in the short and long term.