南海-印度洋海域海洋安全灾害评估与风险区划

Disaster assessment and risk zoning concerning the South China Sea and Indian Ocean safety

针对南海-印度洋海域丰富的海洋资源、重要的战略地位以及该海域的自然灾害风险和海盗活动、恐怖袭击与军事冲突等人为灾害风险,基于风险评估理论从孕灾环境敏感性、致灾因子危险性和承灾体脆弱性等方面选取评价指标并建立评估模型,利用地理信息系统(GIS)平台得到了该区域的自然灾害风险、人为灾害风险和综合风险区划。结果表明,冬季(1月),综合风险最高的区域为亚丁湾、孟加拉湾湾顶、马六甲海峡附近以及越南东南部近海,其次为南海东北部海域、南沙群岛西部海域、巽他海峡、望加锡海峡、科摩林角附近海域、霍尔木兹海峡及索马里近海;夏季(7月),综合风险最高的区域为亚丁湾、孟加拉湾湾顶及马六甲海峡附近,其次为索马里东北部海域、阿拉伯海中西部、斯里兰卡西南近海、吕宋岛西部近海以及巴士海峡附近。

Aiming at the rich marine resource,important strategic status and potential natural disaster as well as man-made disaster such as terrorism and military conflict in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean,assessment indices were selected for risk evaluation modeling from disaster-forming environment,menace of disaster-causing factor and disaster-bearing substance based on risk assessment theory.Then,natural disaster risk,man-made disaster risk and synthetic risk were calculated and zoned,respectively,using GIS platform.The results suggested that in winter the regions with the highest synthetic risk are located in the Gulf of Aden,the top of the Bay of Bengal,around Malacca and southeastern offshore of Vietnam,with the second-highest synthetic risk regions located in the northeastern South China Sea,west of the Spratly Islands,Sunda Strait,Makassar Strait,Laccadive Sea,the coast of Somalia and the Hormuz Strait.In summer,the Gulf of Aden,the top of the Bay of Bengal,and Malacca are the highest synthetic risk regions,while the central and western Arabian Sea,northeastern waters off Somalia,southwest coast of Sri Lanka,west coast of Luzon,and region near the Bashi Channel are the second-highest synthetic risk regions.