乐亭县1975年～2009年气候变化特征分析

Analysis of Climate Change Character in Laoting during 1975 -2009

收集河北省乐亭县气象观测站点记录的气温与降水资料,利用数理统计软件和回归分析方法,对1975年～2009年的气候要素(包括气温和降水)的多年变化趋势、年代季变化趋势、季节性变化趋势进行了分析,阐述了个别年份的气温和降水量的突出变化.结果表明:随着全球气候变暖,1975年～2009年乐亭县平均气温呈明显上升趋势,尤其以冬季气温升高趋势较为明显.年均降水量变化不大,总趋势略有减少,但基本平衡,没有造成旱涝灾害.夏季降水量较均匀,占年均降水量的比例最大.个别年份全年总降水量略增多,如1977年、1985年和1994年降水量超过800 mm.某些年份降水季节变化较大,出现明显的干湿季交替现象.

According to the temperatures and precipitation data which are recorded by the site of meteorological observation in Laoting, Hebei province, with mathematical statistical software and regression analysis method, we analyse the many years,era quarter and seasonal change trend of the factors （including temperature and precipitation） of climate from 1975 -2009 years, and introduced prominent changes of temperature and precipitation in some years. The results show that with global warming, laoting average temperatures show a rising trend from 1975 - 2009 years, especially in winter, warming trend is more obvious. The average annual precipitation is stable, and the total trend slightly reduce, but balance basically, so no cause flood and drought disasters. The total precipitation is a little more in individual years, such as in 1977, 1985 and 1994, precipitation is more than 800 mm. In some years, precipitation changes greatly with the seasons and appears the clear alternation phenomenon of wet and dry season.