大型医用设备配置预测方法的比较研究:以CT为例

Comparative study on forecasting methods of major medical equipments in China:taking CT as an example

目的 :以乙类大型医用设备中的电子计算机X射线断层扫描技术(CT)为例,比较研究各种配置预测方法,对2015年全国CT的数量进行合理的预测。方法 :运用国际水平参考法、需求法、指数平滑法和滞后模型法进行预测。结果 :运用这4种方法,预测2015年全国的CT数量分别为10 564台、10 250台、12 566台和15 310台。结论 :4种研究方法从不同的角度对CT的数量做出预测,但预测也有其局限性,在实际应用中要注意宏观的控制和微观的调整相结合。

Objective： To compare different types of forecasting methods of CT scanner, a typical equipment of major medical equipments（ class B ）, and predict a reasonable number of CT scanner in China by 2015. Methods： International standard reference method, demand method, exponential smoothing and the time-lag model were used in the prediction. Results： The number of CT scanner will range from 10 250 to 15 310 by 2015. Conclusion： All four methods can effectively forecast the number of CT scanner from different perspectives. Macro-control as well as microadjustment should be considered while applying these methods due to their limitations.