商品热钱投机规模与政府最优监管策略

Hot money speculation scale towards commodities and government's optimal regulation strategies

热钱的投机炒作对我国宏观市场运行机制和居民生活稳定产生了严重冲击.为稳定物价水平和规范市场机制,全国各级地方政府正在积极制定和实施对热钱投机的监管措施.构建了一个政府与投机者之间的动态博弈结构,分析了均衡路径上的政府最优监管策略,并结合我国当前的政府监管制度特点,讨论了非均衡路径上的政府监管对投机规模的抑制效应.最后采用数值模拟方法对均衡的政府监管机制的特征进行了验证.

Hot money speculations have a large impact on our country＇s macro-market＇s operation mechanism and the stability of people＇s living.In order to stabilize the price level and to regulate the market mechanism,local governments at all levels are active on establishing and implementing the regulation measures towards the hot money speculations.This paper put forward a dynamic game mechanism between the governments and the speculators,analyzed the governments＇ optimal regulation strategies on the equilibrium path.And discussed the inhibition effects of the government＇s regulations to the speculation scale on the disequilibrium path,combined the featured of the governments regulation regime in our country nowadays.Applied the numerical stimulation methods to verify the features of the government＇s equilibrium regulation mechanism.