国外情报分析中的个体认知偏差研究述评

Study Review on Individual Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis at Abroad

指出国外学者对情报分析中的个体认知偏差研究起源于20世纪80年代,历经30余年的发展,该项研究已经成为情报分析的一个重要研究分支。现有研究可划分为主体视角、客体视角、工具视角和组织视角。针对每个研究视角进行述评,在此基础上总结国外情报分析中个体认知偏差的研究进展,并进一步展望未来研究的方向与重点。

The study on individual cognitive bias in intelligence analysis originated from the 1980s. It has been an important study branch of intelligence analysis in more than thirty years. The existing study can be divided into four perspectives of subject, object, tool and organization. This paper makes a review on the four divisions and summarizes the research development at abroad. Finally, the direction and focus of future studies are prospected.