中国地区经济波动的间接福利损失评估与比较:1985-20071

Indirect Welfare Costs of Chinese Provincial Business Cycle Volatility:1985-2007

本文通过把经济波动对经济增长的负面影响嵌入经济波动福利损失模型中,系统分析了经济波动通过影响经济增长而间接给居民带来的福利损失,并主要采用1985-2007年省级层面数据实证研究了中国地区经济波动的间接福利损失。研究表明,经济波动使居民承受了不容忽视的间接福利损失,不同地区经济波动的间接福利损失显著不同,东、中、西部三大区域经济波动的间接福利损失依次逐渐递增。为提高居民的福利水平,政府应采取地区差异化的稳定政策有效减缓各地区尤其是西部地区的经济波动幅度。

This paper analyzes the indirect welfare cost of business cycle volatility through making negative effect on economic growth rate by establishing a simple theoretical model and then uses mainly Chinese 28 provincial data from 1985 to 2007 as empirical test. The major findings are： the indirect welfare cost of business cycle volatility is far from trivial, total welfare cost of business cycle volatility which includes both the direct and the indirect welfare cost is much larger than the previous estimates. The indirect welfare cost of business cycle volatility is obviously different among all provinces. The indirect welfare cost of business cycle volatility in Chinese western region is the largest. Therefore, in order to improve the welfare level of Chinese residents, regional differences of business cycle volatility should be taken into account in stabilization policy design.