中国电信产业改革评价与改革次序优化——基于产权、竞争、规制的动态面板模型

An Evaluation of the Reform of China's Telecom Industry and the Sequence of Reforms:An Econometric Analysis of Ownership,Competition,and Regulation

中国电信产业的产权、竞争与规制改革已经进行多年,但对三种改革的实证影响和改革次序的研究较为缺乏。中国电信产业下一步的改革重点是什么,改革次序如何优化等都是亟待探讨的问题。文章通过构建动态面板模型分析了具有内生性的产权、竞争和规制改革对电信总量和投资效率的影响。研究结果表明:非国有产权的增加降低了电信总量和投资效率,而产权和竞争的交互影响则弥补了产权改革的不足,进而促进了电信总量和投资效率的提高;竞争与规制改革也显著促进了电信总量和投资效率的提高。中国电信产业未来应加大规制改革力度,完善规制体制;在竞争和规制改革较为完善的情形下,产权改革至关重要。

China＇s telecommunications sector has undergone dramatic reforms for many years. However, very little empirical research has been done that sheds light on ownership, competition and regulation reforms, especially their effects and sequence. This paper undertakes an econometric analysis of the effects of privatization, competition, and regulation on China＇s telecommunications performance. A dynamic panel data model reveals that non -state ownership is negatively correlated with telecom performance, but combined with competition it can improve telecom performance. Competition has a positive impact on telecom performance. The same is true for regulation. We suggest that future reforms of China＇s telecom industry be aimed at strengthening regulation. Ownership reform is important for improving regulation and fair competition.