预算管理中的收入预测:来自美国的经验及对中国的启示

Revenue Forecasting in Government Budgetary Management:Comparison between the U.S.and China

收入预测,是预算过程的起始环节,其准确性将直接影响预算的可靠性,关乎预算方案的整体公信力与可靠度,对于收支平衡的省级政府而言,准确的收入预测至关重要。文章认为,为降低收入预测偏差,美国州政府在收入预测方法、过程等方面已经积累了很多成功的经验,而这些成功经验为降低我国居高不下的预算偏差率提供了很好借鉴。

Accurate revenue forecasting is the first critical step in the long budgetary process. Its accuracy directly affects the reliability and the credibility of the budget. This is true especially for subnational （provincial） governments because governments at this level must balance their budgets and the amount of revenue determines how much it can spend. The practice of revenue forecasting by state governments in the U. S. has accumulated a lot of successful experience that provides good lessons on how to reduce large errors in Chinese provincial governments＇ revenue forecasting.