中国洪水灾害风险县(市)统计分布特征研究

Statistical Distribution Characteristics of Counties and Cities for Flood Risk in China

根据洪水灾害风险管理的发展阶段及特点,考虑洪水灾害对社会经济的短期影响及对社会-经济-环境复合系统可能造成的潜在影响,以"基于洪水保险的洪灾风险(FIRFR)"和"洪灾对可持续发展的潜在影响(PFIOS)"两种概念指数为基础,对全国范围及不同分区FIRFR和PFIOS的县(市)统计分布特征及相对等级差异进行对比分析。结果表明,FIRFR和PFIOS县(市)频数分布特征差异显著,前者基本呈"尖峰"、"右尾"状分布,而后者基本呈对称分布,洪灾短期影响与洪灾潜在影响的重点区域不同。根据不同分区FIRFR和PFIOS统计特征和相对等级差异,提出不同分区综合防洪减灾对策与建议,以有利于可持续发展背景下洪灾风险管理体系的完善和补充,为以区域可持续发展为目的的综合防洪减灾决策提供科学参考。

According to the characteristics of the development of flood risk management system, it is necessary to consider both the short-term economic loss caused by certain flood events and longterm flood impacts on the complex socio-economic-environmental system. Based on the two conceptual indicators of ＇Flood Insurance Related Flood Risk （FIRFR） ＇ and ＇ Potential Flood Im- pacts On Sustainability （PFIOS） ＇ , the statistical characteristics of counties and cities for FIRFR and PFIOS were specifically discussed at the national scale and regional scale. The results indicated that counties and cities distribution characteristics varied greatly for FIRFR and PFIOS whether at the national scale or the regional scale. FIRFR presents ＂leptokurtic＂ and ＂heavy-tailed＂ frequency distribution patterns and PFIOS frequency distribution presents symmetric pattern. Integrated flood prevention and mitigation countermeasures were put forward in combination with the grade variations of FIRFR and PFIOS in different zones. This can help to improve and supply the current flood risk management system in the context of sustainable development. Also, the study can provide scientific references for the decision making on integrated flood prevention and mitigation that targetted to the regional sustainable development.