基于格网的洪水灾害危险性评价分析——以巴基斯坦为例

Flood Hazard Assessment in Pakistan at Grid Scale

洪水灾害已成为给当今人类带来严重损失的自然灾害之一,因此,灾害风险评价是区域经济持续发展的前提与条件。本文从致灾因子和孕灾环境两方面进行分析,综合考虑降水(累计降雨量和最大降雨量)、河流(河网密度)、地形(高程值和坡度值)、土地利用和植被(NDVI)共5种相关因子,以1km格网数据为基础,运用AHP(层次分析法)对巴基斯坦洪水灾害进行了危险性评价。结果表明:巴基斯坦洪水灾害危险性受降雨和地形的影响较大,其危险程度东南部大于西北部,并由东南部向西北部逐渐递减。

Flood disaster had became one of the natural disasters which brings serious damage to human now. Therefore, the necessary flood disaster risk assessment had to make in time. Based on1km grid data, the disaster-causing factors and the disaster-pregnant environment were analyzed. Five related factors including precipitation （accumulated rainfall and maximum rainfall）, rivers （drainage density）, terrain （slope and elevation）, land use and vegetation （NDVI） were selected, and the hazard of flood disaster were evaluated using AHP （Analytic Hierarchy Process） method in Pakistan. On this basis, the results were correspondingly analyzed. The results show that： flood disaster hazard in Pakistan was much more influenced by precipitation and terrain, the danger level of the flood disaster in southeast was more higher than in the northwest, and the danger level was decreas- ing from southeast to northwest gradually. Finally, the flood hazard assessment results were compared with the 2010 Pakistan flood distribution and it show that the results wrer consistent. It demonstrates the feasibility of the method used in this paper and it can be applied elsewhere in the future.