中国煤炭资源生产重心变迁趋势分析——基于煤炭资源综合评价体系

CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION CENTER MIGRATION TREND BASED ON SYNTHETIC EVALUATION ON COAL RESOURCES

中国煤炭资源生产重心趋势判断不能仅仅依据资源潜力,还需考虑资源开发利用经济成本、社会成本、环境效益等多方面的约束,判断依据实质上与煤炭资源综合评价一致,因此,采用综合评价体系帮助判断中国煤炭资源生产重心发展趋势。在建立中国煤炭资源综合评价体系后,对中国煤炭资源进行综合评价,并对评价结果建立回归模型。回归模型分析表明,中国煤炭资源生产重心西移趋势将会进一步加强,甘肃、宁夏将在中短期内成为西移重点,在中长期内,新疆地位将会凸显,生产重心西移格局将更加明显。

To assume China coal production center migration trend is based not only on coal resource potential, but also on utilization cost, social cost, environmental benefit, in accordance with synthetic evaluation on coal resources, hence, synthetic evaluation system is employed to help assume the coal production center migration trend. This paper builds up a regression model based on China＇s synthetic evaluation results on coal resources, which indicates the trend will go westward that Gansu and Ningxia will become centers in a short term, Xinjiang in a long term.