有关铁矿石进口的新解读

Rediscovering a taste for iron ore imports?

短期内对中国铁矿石需求的展望似乎从过去的阴霾中透出光明。

Six months ago, softening steel prices and weak demand meant that a pronounced cut in Chinese steel production seemed likely. Iron ore imports looked to be on course fo a weaker period. However, December’s iron imports were a record 70.9mt and January imports were also pretty firm at 65.5mt. So is the worst now over? Certainly, Chinese macroeconomic signs are encouraging, with growth in industria production, GDP and output of steel-intensive products improving. There have also been signs that pig iron output fo steel production is also beginning to turn around, after softening for much of 2012. Steel prices dropped rapidly in late summer and radical production cuts seemed imminent. As it turned out though, the reaction was very controlled and proportionate. In 2H 2012, mills reduced output by just enough to run down stee stocks and support prices. This had an initial negative effec on iron ore imports, since the steel mills needed less iron ore However, once steel and iron ore prices stabilized at lowe levels, this then rendered China’s higher-cost domestic miners less competitive. Combined with the effect of winter, which makes mining more difficult, domestic iron ore availability was reduced. Signs of a macroeconomic improvement in China has raised the possibility of a greater iron ore import requiremen driven by fundamental demand. To some extent, the ability of the seaborne market to meet any such improvement is restricted, given supply side problems, notably in India. This could be a severe limiting factor, but for the time being, theshort-term outlook for Chinese demand seems brighter than it has for a while.