中国人口城镇化的空间差异与影响因素

Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Urbanization in China

中国人口城镇化水平存在明显的空间差异,呈现出"东高西低"的格局。文章根据第六次全国人口普查数据,运用探索性空间分析方法对中国人口城镇化的空间关系进行了分析。研究发现,人口城镇化水平的空间正自相关性是造成中国人口城镇化空间差异的一个主要原因,并且会改变其他因素对人口城镇化的影响。利用控制了空间自相关性的空间误差模型进行回归分析发现,地区之间土地城镇化水平、第二、三产业就业水平和产值水平,以及人均GDP的差距是造成人口城镇化水平空间差异的主要原因,并且第三产业就业水平的提升对中西部地区人口城镇化的促进作用大于其在东部的作用。与一些研究文献的结论不同,本文在控制主要因素后发现,财政支出水平、出口规模、港澳台资和外资企业发展水平对人口城镇化的空间差异影响并不显著。

Using the sixth national population census data, this paper examines spatial relationship and patterns of China＇ s urbanization by Exploratory？ Spatial Data Analysis. Spatial autocorrelation of urbanization is a main fador causing spatial？ differences of urbanization which also moderates the impacts of other factors affecting urbanization. Using spatial error model which controls spatial autocorrelation for regression analysis, we find that regional differences in land urbanization, employment and output in the secondary and tertiary sectors, and GDP per capita largely determines spatial？ differences and patterns of urbanization. An increased level of employment of the tertiary sector has a larger effect in Central than in East China. Unlike some previous studies, when controlling for major factors, we find regional financial expenditure, export, development of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan -funded enterprises？ and foreign -funded enterprises have not had significant impact on regional patterns of urbanization.