我国电子货币的通货膨胀效应——基于2003—2011年季度数据的实证分析

The Inflation Effect of Electronic Money in China——Based on Empirical Analysis of Quarterly Data from 2003 to 2011

将电子货币引入通货膨胀形成机制的理论分析框架后发现,电子货币通过改变货币供求结构和货币流通速度产生了通货膨胀效应。基于2003—2011年的季度数据,误差修正模型的实证结果表明,我国电子货币的通货膨胀效应显著存在,当前货币流通速度的下降降低了通货膨胀率,但未来货币流通速度的上升会加速通货膨胀。此外,我国电子货币通过减小货币乘数提高了通货膨胀率。

In this paper, electronic money is used in theoretical framework of inflation, h shows that elec- tronic money produces inflation effect through changing the structure of money supply, money demand and the speed of currency circulation. Based on quarterly data in China from 2003 to 2011, the error correction model shows hat the inflation effect of electronic money is obviously. The speed of cunncy circulation in China is decreasing, and it is decreasing the inflation rate. However, he speed of currency circulation will increase, and it will increase the inflation ate. In addition, the electronic money in China increased the in- flation by reducing he money multipher.