贫困地区农村人口粮食消费及成因分析

Analysis of Grain Consumption in Poverty-Stricken Areas

文章基于省际面板数据,构建了贫困地区农村人口粮食消费成因分析模型,利用系统广义矩估计(GMM)方法,实证分析了粮食生产能力、粮食获取能力、粮食供给水平、消费心理、粮食消费惯性等对贫困地区农村人口粮食消费的影响。研究发现,对贫困地区农村人口而言,粮食生产能力对其粮食消费产生积极影响;粮食获取能力提高有助于其粮食消费实现由"量"安全到"质"提高的转变;粮食供给水平提高对其粮食消费产生正向显著影响;粮食消费不足是贫困地区农村人口平衡生产和消费决策后所作出的理性选择,食物消费结构未随食物支出增加而显著改善;粮食消费具有一定惯性,保障粮食安全与扶贫开发过程中要因地制宜。

Based on the provincial panel data,using the system GMM method,the paper empirically analyzes the influence of grain production capacity,food access,food availability,consumer psychology and inertia on grain consumption in the poverty-stricken areas.The results show grain production capacity has a positive impact on food consumption;food access is the key in the transition of 'quantity' to 'quality';and food availability produces a positive effect on grain consumption.The insufficient food consumption in a poverty—stricken area is a result of the residents' compromising between production and consumption,and the food consumption has not improved significantly with the increased food expenditure.That the grain consumption is with certain inertia helps verify classical consumption theory's applicability in poverty-stricken areas.