证伪主义方法在统计推理中的扩展和运用

The Expansion and Application of Falsificationism in Statistical Inference

国内科学哲学界专注于证伪主义方法在确定性理论范围内的分析,而对其在统计推理中的运用鲜为关注。在科学推理中,证伪主义方法的主要问题是归纳意义问题。证伪主义在面对确定性理论时,其本身的反归纳性不能解释许多科学推理中的经典模型;而在统计推理中,以证伪主义为方法论依据的显著性检验模型,又面临归纳显著性的质疑。证伪主义方法可行的修正性进路将是引入"真"的概念及其概率分析。

Among domestic philosophers of science, the analysis of falsifieationism is paid more attention within the range of deterministic theories, while little attention is given to the use of this methodology in statis tical inference. In the process of scientific reasoning, the main problem of falsificationism＇ s methodology is that of induction＇ s meaning. When falsificationism faces deterministic theories, anti induetivity of itself can＇ t explain many classical models of scientific reasoning; and in the process of statistical inference, the signifi cance tests＇ model based on falsificationism＇ s methodology, also encounters skeptics of inductive signifi cance. The practical, revised road of falsificationism＇ and probability analysis. s methodology will be introducing the concept of ＇ true＇