生态岛建设中的空间信息与决策支持

GEO-spatial Information and Decision Support in Ecological Island Construction

为解决不同发展理念和资源禀赋差异化分布条件下,同一区域内不同区位差异化发展的定位和定量决策分析问题.运用遥感和统计等数据对上海崇明岛"自然—经济—社会"复合系统的动态作用和反馈作用进行了分析,进而结合空间分析方法构建了基于单元格的系统动力学模型,并设计了"经济增长型"(Ⅰ)和"经济—资源协调型"(Ⅱ)两个发展模型.仿真结果显示,在中远期目标下,"经济—资源协调型"方案可承载的人口高于"经济增长型"方案约20%,更有利于岛屿整体经济实力的增强.

In order to answer the question of how to position and decide quantitatively the evolution pattern in inner sub-regions which have different environmental conditions and targets of development,a spatial SD model was developed combined with spatial analysis methods,with an analysis of the dynamic role feedback effects of Chongming Island’s ＂natural-economic-social＂ composite system by using its remote sensing images and statistical data.Then,it was used to simulate the dynamic model of the system under two development scenarios the ＂economy-resources coordination＂（I） and ＂economic growth＂（II）.And the results showed that the former was 20% higher than the latter,so it was more conducive to the enhancement of the island’s overall economic strength.