中部地区公共支出调整的三维经济发展效应——基于六省面板数据的实证研究

The Effects of Central Region's Public Expenditure Adjustment on Three Dimensions' Economic Development——Empirical Research Based on Panel Data of the Six Provinces

笔者从政府职能转型的视角,基于协整理论和VECM,运用中部六省的省级面板数据,对中部地区公共支出调整与经济发展水平的经济总量、产业结构、城市化水平三个维度之间的长期关系和短期关系进行了研究。结果显示:中部地区增加政府公共支出规模、调整公共支出结构由经济建设型向公共服务型转变,在长期内能够促进经济总量的增加、产业结构的优化和城市化水平的提高,但中部地区短期内公共支出规模调整和结构转型对产业结构的优化不存在均衡关系,因此中部地区政府公共支出的规模调整和结构转型不是经济发展的短期原因。

From the perspective of government functions transformation,this paper studies the long-term and short-term relationship between public expenditure adjustment and the level of economic development of the central region from three dimensions,the total economy,industrial structure and urbanization level by analyzing panel data of six provinces in central region with co integration theory and the VECM.The results show that the increase of public expenditure size and adjustment of the structure from economic construction type to public service type contribute to the increase of total economic output in the long term,promote the optimization of industrial structure and improve level of urbanization in central region.