制度差异与我国对外贸易流量的实证研究——基于贸易引力模型

An Empirical Study on Institutional Distance and Foreign Trade Flows of Our Country——by Trade Gravity Model

笔者利用1996年～2008年面板数据实证分析了制度差异对我国对外贸易流量的影响,结果发现制度差异与我国对外贸易流量成正相关关系,制度差异平方与我国对外贸易流量成负相关关系,制度差异与我国对外贸易流量成倒u型,但前者通过显著性检验,后者没有通过显著性检验。在实证研究了制度差异的子指标对我国对外贸易流量影响的基础上提出了增加我国对外贸易流量的建议:短期要提高人们参与政治过程的程度和媒体的独立性;加强监管、防止过度监管、减少坏政策的发生概率。长期则要提高政治稳定性、杜绝暴力;提高政府在政策制定与执行方面的能力;提高人们遵守法律和执行合约的程度;治理腐败。

The paper analyzes the effect institutional distance on China’s foreign trade flow with the panel data between 1996 to 2008.It is found that institutional distance has positive effect on China’s foreign trade flow while the square of institutional distance has negative effect on China’s foreign trade flow and the relationship between the institutional distance and China’s foreign trade flow takes U shape.Further empirical study is made on the sub-index of institutional distance to China’s foreign trade flows accordingly.