洛阳高山种植区牡丹花期预测模型构建与检验

Construction and Inspection of Prediction Model for Florescence of Tree Peony in Alpine Planting Area of Luoyang City

针对洛阳牡丹花期与牡丹花会开幕时间不相吻合这一现象,通过研究洛阳高山种植区1992-2010年迎日红、洛阳红和首案红牡丹花期资料与气象资料,采用SPSS软件分析大气温度、地温、有效积温等与牡丹花期之间的内在关系,构建洛阳高山种植区牡丹花期预测模型。结果表明:15cm土层厚度处地温稳定通过4℃的平均温度和积温与牡丹花期有极显著的相关性。采用晚花品种构建模型预测误差范围在-2.375 2～2.456 5d,误差较小,效果较好。

The florescence of tree peony in Luoyang city hardly meeted with local Peony Fair. An- alyzing the meteorological and flowering data of peony in alpine planting area from 1992 to 2010, the result showed that flowering data were associated with the soil temperature and accumulated temperature. Using the selected meteorological factors, three prediction models with SPSS software were easily got. Through comparison of the absolute errors, the results showed that the late flowering prediction was in two-day range, which was ideal. The model could exactly forecast the florescence,and provided a good reference for predicting florescence of tree peony.