非常规突发事件个体决策行为影响因素研究被引量：9

Study on the Influential Factors of Individual Decision-making Behavior of Unconventional Emergency

下载PDF

导出

摘要构建基于系统动力学的非常规突发事件个体决策行为影响模型,并通过实证分析验证了该模型。结果表明:随着决策过程的进行,各情景的决策误差度会逐步降低;各情景的决策时间渐渐缩短。 This paper builds up a model of the decision - making behavior of unconventional emergency based on system dy- namic method. Then it takes an empirical analysis to simulate the decision - making behavior of the decision makers. The result shows that the decision - making errors in various scenarios would gradually reduce, the decision - making time of each scenario would gradually shorten and the decision - making radical degree of risk would rise with the unconventional emergency decision - making progress being carried out.

作者刘嘉谢科范

机构地区武汉理工大学管理学院

出处《软科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2013年第3期50-54,共5页 Soft Science

基金国家自然科学基金项目(90924010)

关键词非常规突发事件决策行为系统动力学 unconventional emergency decision - making behavior system dynamic

分类号 C931 [经济管理—管理学]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献19

1非常规突发事件态势演化和调控机制研究[D].中国科学技术大学博士学位论文,2011.5.
2Craig Calhoun. A World of Emergencies:Fear, Intervention and the Limits of Cosmopolitan Order[ J ] The Canadian Review of Sociology and Anthropology,2004,41 (4) :373 -395.
3Coady. Terrorism, Morality and Supreme Emergency [J] Ethics, 2004(7) :114.
4Dirk Helbing. IUes farkas, Tamas Vicsek, Simulating Dynamical Features of Escape Panic [ J ]. Nature, 2000,407 ( 6803 ) : 487 - 490.
5Caesar S, Gay J P, Giovanni T et al. Self - organized Queuing and Scale - free Behavior in Real Escape Panic [ J ]. PNAS, 2003,100 (21) :11947 - 11952.
6S Paris, J Pettr6, S Donikian. Pedestrian Reactive Navigation for Crowd Simulation : A Predictive Approach [ J ]. Computer Graphics Forum,2007,26 (3) :665 - 674.
7Kahneman D. Prospect theory [J]. E - conometrica, 1979,47 ( 2 ) : 263 - 292.
8Svenson O, Edland A. Change of preferences under Time - pressure: Choices and Judgments [J]. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 1987 (28) :322 - 330.
9Kobasa S C, Maddi S R, Kahn S. Hardiness and Health:A Prospec- tive Study [ J ]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1982, 42( 1 ) :168 - 177.
10Maddi S R. The Story of Hardiness:Twenty Years of Theorizing, Research and Practice [ J ]. Consulting Psychology Journal: Prac- tice and Research ,2002,54 (3) : 173 - 185.

二级参考文献7

1Loewenstein,G.,Lerner J.S.The role of affect in decision making. Handbook of Affective Science . 2004
2Kahneman Daniel,Amos Tversky.Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica . 1979
3Katja M,Isabell W,Philipp K,et al.A neural networkreflecting individual differences in cognitive processingof emotions during perceptual decision making. Neuroimage . 2006
4Lily A G,Hakimzada A F,Yoskowitz N A,et al.The role of emotion in decision-making:a cognitiveneuroeconomic approach towards understanding sexualrisk behavior. Biomedical Informatics . 2006
5Kirby KN,Petry NM,Bickel WK.Heroin addicts have higher discount rates for delayed rewards than non-drug-using controls. Journal of Experimental Psychology General . 1999
6Bechara A,Damasio H,Damasio AR.Emotion, decision making and the orbitofrontal cortex. Cerebral Cortex . 2000
7庄锦英.情绪与决策的关系[J].心理科学进展,2003,11(4):423-431. 被引量：102