摘要
近期我国经济呈增速趋缓、物价攀升的边际滞胀态势。阻碍我国经济高速增长的因素主要是人口红利减少、储蓄—投资转化率低和制度不完善,引致我国通货膨胀的因素主要是政府宽松的财政货币政策、企业成本上涨和公众的高通胀预期。借鉴国内外有关滞胀治理的理论研究,我国应调整计划生育政策,提高劳动的收入份额,增加教育、医疗卫生和社保投入,实行结构性减税,完善科技投入体制,完善产权、户籍、社保和行政法律制度,明确货币政策的币值稳定目标,合理引导通胀预期。
Recently,the economy of China is in a marginal stagflation situation with slow growth rate and the rising of price.The main factors hindering high-speed economy growth of China include the reduced demographic dividend,the low conversion rate of saving to investment and imperfect institution,however,the main factors causing inflation are the erasing of government fiscal and monetary policies,the increasing enterprise cost and the high public inflation expectations.Based on the stagflation governance experience and theory in the domestic and foreign relevant researches,China should adjust family planning policy,improve labor income share,increase the investment in education,health care and social security,implement structural tax cut,perfect science and technology input system,complete legal system for the property rights,household register,social security and administration,clarify money-value stability objective of monetary policy and rationally guide inflation expectation.
出处
《西部论坛》
2012年第3期28-34,共7页
West Forum
基金
重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学研究项目(10SKH18)
重庆工商大学青年科研基金资助项目(0851004)
关键词
滞胀风险
边际滞胀
滞胀治理
人口红利
通货膨胀
通胀预期
财政政策
货币政策
结构性减税
stagflation risk
marginal stagflation
stagflation governance
demographic dividend
inflation
inflation expectation
fiscal policy
monetary policy
structural tax cut
