城市道路网络可靠度及其敏感度研究

Research on Reliability and Sensitivity of Urban Road Network

针对饱和度不能全面反映交通状况的缺点,首先对路段畅通可靠度的计算公式进行了改进;然后利用图论中的最小路集法将路网简化为简单串并联网络,并结合北京市路网实时数据,构建城市路网畅通可靠度的计算方法;最后作为路网畅通可靠度计算方法的延伸,对各条路段进行了敏感度分析,确定引起路网拥堵的关键路段。研究结果表明:改进后得到的畅通可靠度能够较好地反映交通拥挤状况,基于畅通可靠度评价的敏感度分析能有效定位出解决路网拥堵的关键路段,可为道路交通管理部门提供决策及理论支持。

As the saturation cannot fully reflect traffic situation, firstly, the formula of unblocked reliability was improved. Secondly, minimal road set algorithm in graph theory was used to simplify the road network as a simple series-parallel network, and combined with real-time data of the road network in Beijing, the calculation method of urban road network reliability was established. Finally, as the extension of unblocked reliability evaluation, sensitivity analysis was conducted for each road in the road network and the critical sections in road network were determined. The results show that the improved unblocked reliability can sensitively reflect the road congestion situation and the sensitivity analysis based on the unblocked reliability evaluation can effectively locate the critical sections in road network for solving the congestion problem. This study can provide reasonable decision-making and theoretic support for traffic management departments.