摘要
为了进一步提高预测预报与持续控制能力,应用最小二乘法、频次分布、聚集度指标、m*-m回归分析和Taylor幂法则等对油菜菌核病病株的空间分布型进行了分析,结果表明油菜菌核病病株田间分布大多趋向于均匀分布,但在特殊情况下也会出现聚集分布现象,即为田间中心病株。在此基础上,提出了Iwao最适理论抽样模型N=149.9074/m-84.2619,并建立序贯抽样模型为T0(N)=0.2298N±1.1183姨N,即:调查株数N时,若累计发病率超过上界可定为防治对象田,若累计发病率未达到下界时,可定为不防治田,若累计发病率在上下界之间,则应继续调查,直到最大样本数m0=0.23时,也即发病率15%,所需抽样数568株止。
This paper dealt with the spatial distribution pattern and sampling technique for Sclerotinia sclerotiorum in rape fields.Test of frequency distributions indicated the diasease was fited to the evenness distribution,totally.The Iwao Optimum Theory Sampling and Sequential Sampling Model were also established： N =149.9074/m-84.2619,T0（N）=0.2298N±1.1183 N.It meant that the distribution pattern of infected plant individual got more and more even as the density increased.The sampling number decreased with the pathogen index increasing.The sampling number was 568 plants when the maximum sample size（m0=0.23）appeared and disease incidence was 15%.
出处
《科技通报》
北大核心
2013年第3期96-99,共4页
Bulletin of Science and Technology
基金
浙江省台州市科技局科技资金项目"油菜主要病虫灾变规律及其持续控制技术研究"(计划编号102KY03)
关键词
油菜菌核病
空间分布型
最适理论抽样模型
序贯抽样模型
抽样数
rape Sclerotinia sclerotiorum
spatial distribution pattern
optimum theory sampling model
sequential sampling model
sampling number
