四川省达州市开江县肾综合征出血热死亡病例空间分布规律探讨

Study of space distribution law of death cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Kaijiang county,Dazhou city, Sichuan province

目的探讨。肾综合征出血热死亡病例空间分布理论概率模型，为制订防治策略提供科学依据。方法采用P0isson分布和负二项分布，对四川省达州市开江县1979—2010年肾综合征出血热死亡病例空间分布进行拟合。结果开江县肾综合征出血热死亡病例的实际分布不服从P0isson分布（x2=40．64，P〈O．01），而服从于负二项分布（x2=1．86，P〉0．50）。结论开江县肾综合征出血热死亡病例在空间分布不是随机均匀的，而有严格的地区聚集性。可能与当地医疗条件、患者缺乏保健知识等因素有关。

Objective To study the space distribution probability model of death cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, so as to provide basic information for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome prevention and control policy making. Methods Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution were used to fit the hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome deaths spatial distribution in Kaijiang county, Dazhou city, Sichuan province between 1979 - 2010. Results The actual distribution of death cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Kaijiang county was not Poisson distribution （X2 = 40.64, P 〈 0.01 ）, but subjected to the negative binomial distribution（X2 = 1.86, P 〉 0.50）. Conclusions The space distribution of death cases of HFRS in Kaijiang county is not random, but has strict regional aggregation, which may be related to the local medical conditions, natient＇s lack of knowledge about health care and other factors.