安徽省水灾灾损率风险测度及区划研究

Risk Measure and Its Division for Flood Disaster Loss Rate in Anhui Province

信息扩散原理能最大程度地挖掘小样本数据携带的信息,对小区域灾情资料不足的情况较为适用。以安徽省17市为研究对象,利用信息扩散原理建立水灾灾损率风险测度模型,计算各市遭受水灾不同水平经济破坏的概率估计值及超越概率,完成水灾经济损失的定量风险测度。为使结果更为直观,绘制了灾损率风险区划图。结果表明,整体上,淮河流域灾损风险最大,中部沿江地带次之,皖南及皖西大别山区较弱。

Information diffusion theory is a good way of information mining and can be used to analyze the in- formation carried by small samples to the greatest degree. Therefore, it is more suitable for the disaster anal- ysis in the small area where usually lacks of enough disaster information. 17 cities in Anhui Province are se- lected for the study. A risk measurement model for flood disaster loss rate is established based on informa- tion diffusion principle. Probabilities and exceedanee probabilities at different damage levels are calculated for each flood-hit city. Risk zoning map is drawn to make results more intuitive. Results show that overall, Huaihe River basin has the highest risk, followed by the central area along the river. Southern Anhui Prov- ince and Dabie Mountains in Western Anhui Province are weak in risk.