Monte-Carlo模拟的作战飞机生存力综合评价方法

Integrated Evaluation Method of Combat Aircraft Survivability Based on Monte-Carlo Simulation

针对目前作战飞机生存力评价中多准则决策评价法处理不确定信息的不足,提出了一种将计算机仿真和多准则决策结合起来的综合评价法。该方法在确定飞机生存力指标的评价量度和分布区间的基础上,利用Monte-Carlo模拟生成生存力指标的随机值,然后采用灰色关联投影法和基于理想点决策法进行随机指标的综合评价,最后通过统计分析获得生存力的评价结果。利用上述方法对5型现役作战飞机的生存力进行了仿真评价,得出了各方案在大量模拟次数下的综合评价结果和方案排序,验证了此方法的有效性和工程实用性。此方法也为其他各类需要处理不确定信息的方案综合评价提供了参考。

On account of there are some disadvantages of conventional multi criteria and decision-making evaluation method to deal with indefinite information,a integrated method which combines computer simulation and multi criteria and decision-making method is proposed.in this method,the measurements and distribution zones of survivability attributes are determinated.Firstly,the stochastic values of survivability attributes are created by Monte-Carlo simulation.Secondly,the integrated evaluation were carried by grey relation projection method and TOPSIS method.Thirdly,the final evaluation results of survivability were acquired by statistics analysis lastly.A simulation evaluation of five modern combat aircrafts was performed by the method,the integrated evaluation results and project order were given,which validated the availability and engineering practicability of the method in this paper.The method can also provide useful references for other project evaluation which needs to deal with indefinite information.