二元经济、农业劳动力外流与粮食安全——基于非完全信息静态博弈

Dual Economy Outflow of Agriculture Labor and Food Security—Based on Incomplete Information Static Game

农业劳动力外流会改变农业结构和影响土地利用率,对粮食生产的效率和产量带来一定的影响。通过结合非完全信息静态博弈的基本经济思想,并运用调查数据来验证农业劳动力流出是否对粮食生产有影响。研究结果表明:在二元经济结构下,城乡收入差距拉大,大量有效农业劳动力外流,会影响农业技术进步与推广,降低粮食生产效率,也容易出现农业耕地抛荒,在一定程度上影响粮食安全。

The outflow of agricultural labor will change the structure of agriculture and affect the utilization of land, and accordingly brings a certain impact on grain production efficiency and yield. This paper studies the impact of the mobility of agricultural labor on the grain production using the survey data based on the basic economic theory of incomplete information static games. The results show that, in the dual economic structure, such factors as urban-rural income gap and massive outflow of agricultural labor will affect the application and promotion of agricultural technology, reduce the efficiency of grain production, and also be prone to agricultural land abandonment, which will affect the national food security to certain extent.