调整出口退税政策后的效果检验——基于门槛面板回归的实证分析

Policy Evaluation of Adjusting Export Tax Rebate: Based on Panel Threshold Regression

2004年以后,我国出口退税进行了退税率调整,本文截取2005-2009全国各地区面板数据运用非线性门槛面板回归的结果表明,调整后的我国出口退税机制只在促进经济增长和优化经济结构上作用明显,而在能源利用效率、环境污染控制方面的作用有限,这与出口退税的多重功能定位之间的矛盾有关。在对我国环境资源方面的矫正机制进行逻辑梳理后,本文认为应该还出口退税以原有的中性,实行完全退税,转而依靠更为有效的出口关税对环境资源要素的国内外差价进行矫正。

China＇s export tax rebate rate was adjusted after 2004. This paper gives an analysis using domestic panel data be- tween 2005 and 2009. The nonlinear panel threshold regression results indicate that the adjustment of China＇s export tax rebate mechanism worked effectively in promoting economic growth as well as optimizing the economic structure while played a limited role in energy efficiency and environmental protection, and which had something to do with the mess of tax rebate＇ s function positioning. After a comprehensive logical analysis of the correction mechanism in the environmental resource field, we finally come to the conclusion that it is necessary to keep tax rebate neutral and fully refunding and that the export tariff will serve as a competent policy substitution for it.