门限效应、能源消费与中国的经济增长

Threshold Effect, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China

本文利用非线性门限向量误差修正模型,分析中国1953年到2008年的能源消费与经济增长,并与向量误差模型进行了对比研究。研究结果表明:中国的能源消费与经济增长之间存在着门限效应;利用非线性模型的拟合结果优于线性模型的拟合结果;当误差项低于门限值时,存在长期的双向格兰杰因果关系,实证结果支持反馈假说理论,而当误差项高于门限值时,这种长期双向因果关系消失,二者之间不存在格兰杰因果关系,实证结果支持中性假说理论。因此,本文的重要政策启示是应该动态的看待能源消费与经济增长之间的关系。

This paper uses the newly developed nonlinear modeling techniques - the threshold vector error correction model-to analyze energy consumption and economic growth of China from 1953 to 2008, and makes a comparative study with the vector error model. The results show that China＇s energy consumption and economic growth fit the nonlinear threshold mechanism; that the nonlinear model fits better than the linear model; that with the error correction term below the threshold value, there is a long-term bi-directional Granger causality, and the empirical results support the feedback hypothesis theory; that with the error correction term higher than the threshold value, this long-term bi-directional causality disappeared, and the two variables does not show any Granger causality with the empirical results supporting the neutral hypothesis theory. Therefore, an important policy implication from this paper is that there is a dynamic relationship between energy consumption and economic growth.