人民币汇率变动对中国小麦进口贸易的影响研究

The Study of RMB Exchange Rate on China's Wheat Imports on the Impact of Trade

随着世界经济的一体化,汇率在世界资源配置中的作用越发突出。人民币升值有其积极的一面,而其消极影响也不容忽视。在中国农产品国际贸易中,小麦占据着举足轻重的地位,人民币汇率变动将对中国小麦的进口贸易产生怎样的影响?针对不同的影响应提出怎样的措施成为本研究的目的。文章在汇率变动对进口贸易影响一般原理的基础上,从实证角度构建C-D函数形式的计量经济模型,运用回归分析、单位根检验、协整关系检验、Granger因果检验以及脉冲响应函数等计量经济学方法,探讨人民币汇率变动对中国小麦进口贸易的影响。通过实证研究发现,人民币名义有效汇率变动对中国小麦进口贸易的影响存在时滞效应,加入滞后一期(1个月)的汇率,人民币升值对中国小麦进口存在着促进作用。在人民币名义有效汇率升值的情况下,中国小麦进口贸易也存在反J曲线效应。最后,从政府、企业、农户3个角度给出相应的建议。

With the worldwide economic ingratiation,exchange rate was playing a more and more important role in the distribution of resource.Besides its active side,the appreciation rate of RMB brings lots of passive influence which couldn＇t be ignored.During China＇s import and export trade,wheat occupied a decisive position.The study purpose of this paper was that the RMB exchange rate would how to influence China＇s wheat import trade,and in view of the different influence we should put forward the different measures.Based on the general principle of the influence on import trade by fluctuation of exchange rate,this paper found an econometric model with C-D function in order to study the influence on China＇s wheat export trade with the help of regression analysis,ADF test,Co-integration test,Granger test and impulse response function.The results showed that time lag effect exists in the influence on China＇s wheat import trade by the variation of RMB＇ nominal rate.But when considering of first-lagged （one month） exchange,the appreciation promotes the wheat import.In this case,anti J-curve effect appeared in our wheat import.In the end,some suggestion has been made from the government,interpreters and farmers.