油纸绝缘气隙放电与油中产气规律的相关-回归分析

Correlation and regression analysis of air-gap discharge and gas generation law in oil-paper insulation

气隙放电是变压器油纸绝缘局部放电的主要模式,研究其与油中产气规律的相关性对诊断油纸绝缘早期故障的产生及发展具有重要意义。笔者在实验室设计了变压器局部放电模拟实验系统,采用升压法,在60℃油温条件下研究了气隙放电及其发展特征,利用主成分分析方法从29个局放统计算子中提取出6个相互独立的主成分因子;利用相关-回归分析得出了变压器油中产生的6种溶解气体含量与6个局放主成分因子线性相关;拟合得到了6种气体含量与6个主成分的多元线性回归模型,为进一步探讨变压器早期局部放电发展与油中产气规律之间的关系提供了一种新的思路。

The air gap discharge is the main pattern of partial discharge of transformer insulation paper.Studying the correlation of partial discharge and gas production rules is important to diagnose early generation and development of the paper oil insulation.The paper design a simulation experiment system of transformer partial discharge in laboratory,and study gas discharge and development characteristics under the condition of 60 ℃ and the way of increasing voltage method.By major-content method,six major factors are selected from 29 statistic operators.And the six major factors are independent with each other.Results show that there is correlation between six kinds of gas and six major factors by correlation and regression method,and multivariable linear regression model of six kinds of gas and six major factors is presented.The above results provide a new idea for further discussing the relationship between early development of transformer partial discharge and the rule of gas production in oil.