埃及威权主义衰落原因探析——基于合法性的视角

The Causes for the Decline of the Authoritarianism in Egypt——Based on the Perspective of Legitimacy

2010年底以来的"阿拉伯之春"震惊世界,埃及穆巴拉克政权在这场政治剧变中轰然倒台。埃及政治动荡不是孤立的政治事件,不但有宏阔的现实背景,也有深厚的历史渊源。历史上,三位埃及总统的执政风格各具特色,都取得过辉煌的业绩。但他们也存在共同的致命弱点:贪恋权位,不思从根本上变革威权体制,导致政治合法性类型的转换缺乏动力;加之政府的暴力色彩浓厚,造成社会矛盾丛生。因此,埃及威权主义的合法性在代与代之间呈现不断降低的趋势,民众对于专制的不满只要遇到合适的时机必然会爆发。

Since the end of 2010,the world has been stunned by the lasting Arab Spring.In Egypt,the regime of Mubarak collapsed in this political dramatic change.The turmoil of Egypt is not a solely political event,because it bases on the realistic background as its roots deeply in the history.Historically,these three presidents of Egypt all had their own characteristics and won their glorious merits.And yet they shared some fatal weaknesses： Their indulging in power and ignoring reforming fundamentally the authoritarian regime made them lose the power to transform the supports of legitimacy,and the abusing of government＇s violence made the country full of conflicts.In consequence of these facts,the degree of the authoritarian regime＇s legitimacy had been declining from the first president to the last one,and the angers of populace would break out when they found outlet.