灰色马尔可夫模型在济南市耕地预测中的应用

Application of Grey-Markov Model in the Predication of Farmland in Ji'nan City

以济南市为研究区域,分析了1996年至2010年耕地面积和人均耕地的变化态势,并运用灰色-马尔可夫预测的方法,建立划分状态的GM(1,1)模型,对研究区域的耕地面积进行了预测。研究表明:灰色-马尔可夫模型对波动较大的数据拟合较好,在预测中具有独特的优势。另外,济南市耕地面积在15年的时间中呈现出波动下降变化态势,虽在近年趋于稳定,但在快速城市化、人口增长等因素的影响下,保护形势依然严峻。

Taking Ji＇nan city as the research area, land changes of cultivated area and average capital cultivated land from 1996 to 2010 have been analyzed. By using gray predication method, division of state of GM （1,1） model has been set up, and cultivated land areas in the research area have been predicated. As showed by the result, grey-Markov model is better for volatile data fiting, and has a unique advantage in the forecast. In addition, the cultivated area of Jinan city in 15 years is showing s declining trend. Although the trend in recent years is stable, with the impact of rapid urbanization, population growth and other factors, protection situation is still grim.