汇金公司增持四大国有商业银行对A股市场的影响——基于市场数据的比较分析

Impact on the A-shares Market of Central Huijin’s Increasing Holding of the Four Major State-owned Commercial Banks——a Comparative Analysis Based on Market Data

汇金公司作为国有重点金融企业出资人,在证券市场极度低迷时增持四大国有商业银行股份有利于维护市场信心,稳定国内金融形势。通过事件分析法对汇金公司增持公告前后上证指数收益率进行分析,结果表明增持短期提升了上证指数累积非正常收益率,但A股市场对增持的反应程度依次递减。此外,采用邹至庄突变点检验结果表明增持公告短期对上证指数造成了明显冲击,成为市场收益的一个突变点,但并不能影响股市中长期的趋势。由于汇金公司持股比例已经非常高,进一步增持空间有限,因此未来稳定A股市场的手段应该更加多样化,不能仅靠单一的增持。

As a key state-owned financial investor, Central Huijin＇s increasing holding of the shares of the four major state- owned commercial banks is helpful to maintain confidence and stabilize domestic financial situation when the securities market is extreme murky. Through event analysis method, this paper analyzes the returns of Shanghai Stock index around the Central Huijin holdings announcement, and the results show that the holdings promoted the cumulative abnormal return rate in the short-term, but the extent of reaction to the holdings is decreasing on the A-shares market. In addition, the Chow Breakpoint Test results showed that Central Huijin holdings announcement caused a significant impact on Shanghai Stock Index in the short-term, and it becomes a mutation point to the market gains, but it does not affect the trend of stock market in the long-term. Because Central Huijin＇s shares percentage is very high, the space of increasing holding is limited, therefore, there should be more means to stabilize the A-shares market in the future, not simply depends on increasing holding.