国外资本的流入是否总是促进经济增长

Does Foreign Capital Inflow Always Spur Economic Growth?

近年来外商直接投资、官方发展援助以及劳工汇款的国际资本流动逐年增加,但目前的研究还没有把这三者放到一个框架下考察它们对于经济增长的效应。本文使用134个发展中国家1980-2010年数据和面板三阶段最小二乘法(EC3SLS)弥补该领域研究的不足,在此基础上引入政府治理指标研究不同地区政府治理水平的差异是否会对国外资本流入本国的经济绩效产生显著影响。研究表明:发展中国家FDI和劳工汇款对经济增长有明显的促进作用,当有更好的政府治理环境时,这一正向影响有所加强。ODA与经济增长的关系,就其本身而言没有明显的促进作用,反映了ODA援助目标的有效性问题,但是当政府效能较高的情况下,ODA的经济效应会有不同的效果。

In the past 20 years, international capital flows have increased every year, including foreign direct investment, official development assistance and workers＇ remittances. Nevertheless, the current research hash＇ t put the three types of capital flows under one framework to examine their effects on economic growth. One of the main contributions of this paper is to use the data of 134 developing countries from 1980 to 2010 and panel three-stage least squares method （EC3SLS） to enrich the research in this field, and then we introduce governance indicators to test if different governance levels of local governments will have a significant impact on the effects of foreign capital inflows on domestic economic performance. The results show that in the developing countries FDI and workers＇ remittances play a significant role in promoting economic growth. Moreover, this positive impact will been strengthened at better governance environment. ODA has no obvious impact on the economic growth on its own, reflecting the effectiveness of ODA assistanee targets, but when the government efficiency is taken into account, the economic effects of the ODA will have different results.