中国菲利普斯曲线的非线性特征分析

Nonlinearity Analysis of Phillips Curve in China

在对产出缺口进行测算的基础上,本文运用非线性平滑转换回归模型刻画了我国通货膨胀与产出缺口之间的动态非线性关系。研究结果表明:产出缺口对通货膨胀的影响具有典型的非线性特征和非对称性,并且这种影响具有明显的阶段性特征,在1994-1998年和1999-2007年间,线性特征明显;而在1981-1993年和2008年以后,非线性特征明显,且两种特征之间转换频繁。

Based on the measurment of output gap, the non-linear smooth transition model is employed to capture the dynamic relationship between output gap and inflation in China. The results show that the influence of Chinese output gap on the inflation rate has the typical non-linear characteristic and the asymmetry; The relationship between them has the obvious gradual characteristic. During 1994 to 1998 and 1999 to 2007, it presented the obvious linear characteristic. However, during 1981 to 1993 and after 2008, the non-linear characteristic is obvious, and the relationship is changing frequently between linearity and non-linearity.