中国进口持续时间及其决定因素

The Duration of Import Relationships in China

本文运用1998-2006年CEPII-BACI数据库考察了HS6分位产品层面中国进口贸易关系的持续时间及其决定因素。我们发现,中国进口持续时间的中位值为1年,均值为2.26年,中国进口贸易关系的危险函数同样也具有明显的负时间依存性。我们运用离散时间cloglog模型考察了进口贸易持续时间的决定因素。结果发现,传统的引力模型变量对持续时间具有与贸易流量类似的影响。同时,汇率波动、初始贸易额和产品差异化等因素都对中国进口贸易关系持续时间产生了显著影响。因此,在进口贸易政策调整过程中必须重视进口持续时间。

This paper examines the duration of import relationships in China using CEPII-BACI database at the HS 6 - digit product level from 1999 to 2006. We find the median duration of import relationships is 1 year, the mean duration is 2.26 year and the hazard function of import relationships is negative duration dependence. We use a discrete-time cloglog model to estimate the determinants about duration of import relationships, and find that the traditional gravity variables have similar effects on the duration of import relationships, at the same time, exchange fluctuations, initial value and product differentiation and so on also have effects on the duration of import relationships. Therefore, we should pay attention to the duration of import relationships when adjusting our import policy.