我国农村住户连续性抽样调查方案设计

The Design of China's Rural Household Successive Sampling Survey Program

在改革开放的新形势下,我国政府统计部门开展了农村住户等一系列农村统计调查,为解决"三农"问题提供了多方面的数据信息。本文通过分析总结现行农村住户抽样调查方案中存在的各种矛盾和问题,利用国际上前沿的连续性抽样调查方法作为理论基础,分别从农村住户抽样框的构建、连续各期调查样本的抽取、二维平衡轮换模式的设计、连续性抽样估计及其方差估计和连续时间序列数据的调整分析等角度提出一系列改革措施,从而设计出更加科学的调查方案,为及时、准确地搜集和提供关于"三农"问题的数据信息服务。关于其他类型的抽样调查方案亦可按照本文研究的思路类似地加以设计和解决。

Under the new situation of reform and opening up, Chinag statistical agencies of government carried out a series of rural surveys, such as the Rural Household Survey, provided a wide range of data to solve the ＂Three Rural＂ issues. This paper analyzes and summaries the various contradictions and problems that exist in the sampling program of the current Rural Household Survey, then uses the international forefront methods of the successive sampling survey as the theoretical basis. At last, this paper puts forward a series of reform measures respectively from the construction of rural households sampling frame, the sampling of the successive phases sample, the design of two-dimensional balanced rotation scheme, the successive sampling estimation and its variance estimation, and the adjustment and analysis of the successive time-series data. Therefore, more scientific sampling program can be designed; the timely and accurate information and data services about ＂Three Rural＂ issues can be collected and provided. The program for other types sampling surveys can also be similarly designed and solved in accordance with the research ideas of this paper.